One suspects that nobody really knows what the Atlanta Falcons are going to do with Michael Penix Jr., including the Atlanta Falcons themselves. The new brass has been on the job for about a month—less for Ian Cunningham—and deciding the fate of the former first round quarterback who still has two years and a fifth year option on his rookie deal is not a small, easily made decision. That’s particularly true when injury complicates the picture.
That’s not going to stop anyone from wildly speculating, or turning to league sources. First up is Jason La Canfora, the longtime NFL insider with a very spotty track record, who talked to an NFL general manager and what sounds like a coach who interviewed for Atlanta’s open job earlier this year or a coach’s agent.
“It’s not just going to be a warm body, veteran-minimum type guy, I can promise you that,” said one source privy to some of Atlanta’s internal discussions about the quarterback position during their interviews with candidates for the head coaching search.
“There are some definite concerns there about Penix taking the next step on several levels. It’s been a lot worse there than people really know.”
One general manager, who expects to be very active pursuing quarterbacks himself, said: “Atlanta is looking for a starting quarterback, I know that much. We are definitely looking at them as competition. I think they’re going to be in on everything. It’s not good there with Penix.”
What do we make of this? There’s a lot of darkly gesturing toward problems with Penix that are not elaborated on, but would seem to concern his development or lack thereof in 2024 and 2025. It would be fair to say that Penix did not make the leap we all hoped for after a promising late season stint in 2024, but his injury also wiped out a chance to improve in the second half of the season. The fact that his internal champions Terry Fontenot and Raheem Morris are now gone suggests he’ll have to return from injury quickly and impress to stick as the franchise option, but that’s hardly a surprise.
The most important takeaway of La Canfora’s piece is the one that confirms our priors: The Falcons are going to get a starting-caliber quarterback via free agency, trade, or the draft. They really don’t have a choice in the matter, because the option they pick is almost certainly going to make starts in 2026. At the low end that’s a start or two early in the year while Penix ramps up or if he’s dinged up in-season, and at the high end it’s half a season or more if Penix’s recovery goes slowly or the team simply doesn’t think he’s their best option once he is healthy. We’ve speculated about who that quarterback might be, but it’s an absolute given that they’re going to find a way to get a player with starting upside, experience, or both.
As for Penix, I don’t like the vague criticism from sources who don’t seem to be in the building in Atlanta, and I’m not particularly inclined to wring my hands over his future based on it. The arm talent is evident but the results have been decidedly mixed, and that plus the injury history is enough to know we shouldn’t put all our hopes and dreams on his shoulders. The Falcons will get a look at him on the timeline that injury allows and go from there, and I’d be far more concerned about the new regime if they had already decided his future. It is worth noting that they’re not simply going to throw him away, as Matt Ryan made clear in a recent interview where he talked about trying to surround Penix with experienced coaches like quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt who have played the position and can work with Penix on, for example, his footwork. Much will be up to what Penix’s progress looks like.
We should not assume the Falcons will be wedded to Penix, as I wrote earlier this offseason, even if I expect him to get first crack at the starting job if he’s healthy. But I also believe the public words of support for Penix combined with a lack of commitment to him as the starter is an accurate reflection of where a brain trust still settling in sits: They think Penix is talented, but availability and ability are still concerns that make it uncertain whether they can or will build around him. The only way we’re actually going to know what the team thinks of Penix is what happens when words turn into action and they go grab an option to either replace him or serve as insurance for him. Everything else is worth listening to, but ultimately just noise.