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Friday night's West Midlands derby between bottom-of-the-table Wolves and third-placed Aston Villa is unlikely to be the mismatch which those respective league positions suggest.
The hosts can take confidence from holding league leaders Arsenal to a draw in the previous game at Molineux, as well as the fact this fixture – against out-of-sorts neighbours – has brought them unrivalled success at home in recent years.
Wolves' favourite fixture
Wolves have suffered 20 league defeats after 28 games of a season for the first time in their history as a result of Crystal Palace's last-minute winner last weekend by Evann Guessand, a player on loan from Aston Villa.
It leaves Wolves a point adrift of the Premier League's all-time lowest tally of 11 in a season, set by Derby County in 2007-08.
Unlike that Derby side, who "threw the towel in" according to then player Andy Todd, Wolves aren't going down with a whimper. Eight of their 10 points this season have been earned over the past 10 matches, with their four defeats during that period only one more than Villa.
No home fixture has been as fruitful for Wolves in recent years than this one, either. They've taken 19 points from the past eight Premier League and Championship meetings with Aston Villa at Molineux, with their only defeat during that period coming during a Covid-19 lockdown in December 2020. Wolves haven't lost at home to Villa with fans in attendance since 2012.
Can Abraham lift Villa?
Aston Villa's poor record at Molineux, allied to their recent sharp dip in performances, has added to the jeopardy for the visitors as they seek a first ever Premier League away win on a Friday night - their record so far is two draws and four defeats.
Ending that barren streak would give Unai Emery a 100th Villa victory in 179 games, the quickest of any manager to reach that milestone with the club. More importantly, it would ensure Villa stay ahead of the teams chasing them down. After Friday, they have successive league matches against two of those sides: Chelsea and Manchester United.
While Villa are holding up defensively, conceding just four goals during their current run of two wins in seven top-flight fixtures, they've only scored five times across that period. Three of those have come after the 85th minute, most recently from Tammy Abraham to earn a point at home to Leeds last Saturday.
The £18.25m January signing has scored in successive games with his only two shots on target but awaits a first league start since facing Brentford at the beginning of the month, when his would-be equaliser was controversially ruled out by VAR.
With Villa struggling in front of goal, Emery could do worse than pay heed to Abraham's record versus Wolves – he has scored six times in his three starts against them, latterly a Premier League hat-trick for Chelsea in September 2019.
