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The Knicks just couldn’t beat good teams last year. This isn’t new information; it was highly publicized that the Knicks went 0-10 against the league’s three 60-win teams in the regular season. Did they change the narrative come playoff time when they miraculously knocked off the defending champions? Sure, but detractors pointed to that record after the team was eliminated to say they got lucky against Boston.
You look at the record beyond those teams against the best the NBA has to offer and it wasn’t pretty:
vs 60+ win teams: 0-10
vs 50+ win teams: 5-16
vs top-6 seeds: 10-20
vs above .500 teams: 19-23
They just weren’t beating much of anyone with a pulse. What they did do, however, was stomp on flat-out bad teams. They went 32-8 against below .500 teams, with four of those losses coming to either the Bulls or Hawks. In fact, in 25 games against teams who missed the play-in tournament, the Knicks went 22-3, only losing to the Hornets, Spurs, and Jazz.
So it’s fair to say that, until the playoffs, that team was a paper tiger. And if you’re in that sect of the Knicks’ fanbase, you’d probably believe it’s more of the same this year with the team’s three blowout defeats to the Pistons and the recent loss to Cleveland, but it really isn’t:
vs 60+ win pace: 0-3 (Detroit)
vs 50+ win pace: 9-7*
vs top-6 seeds: 15-9*
vs above .500 teams: 19-17*
(* This includes the NBA Cup final. Just because Adam Silver doesn’t count it, doesn’t mean it wasn’t a competitive basketball game with real stakes.)
If you take out one singular team, the Knicks are 9-4 against teams on pace to win at least 50 games and 15-6 against teams currently in playoff position. The only team they currently have a losing record against in the East is the Pistons, and the Western Conference teams aren’t in playoff position (Suns 0-2, Warriors 0-1)
It’s just fascinating to see that the Knicks can get definitive wins against several contenders, but they’ve gotten absolutely obliterated by the Pistons. Last year, you could say that the team didn’t have the personnel to compete with the top three. This year? It doesn’t make sense.
Look at what we saw on Sunday afternoon, where the Knicks completely dominated the Spurs for 40 minutes. After going down 19-7 with some of the worst offense you’ve ever seen, the Knicks outscored the hottest team in the NBA by a staggering 37 points. After prevailing in the NBA Cup behind the heroics of two guards who no longer play, the Knicks have now dominated 11 out of 12 quarters against the Spurs. Excluding the final eight minutes of the New Year’s Eve disaster that kick-started the worst 11-game stretch in several years, the Knicks have outscored the Spurs by 47 points across 11 and a third quarters.
What makes them such a tough matchup for San Antonio? While the youthful Spurs have a 7’4” demigod and some tremendous guard play, they’re extremely short on viable wings. Devin Vassell is a good shooter and, as we learned on NYE, Julian Champagnie can get hotter than fish grease. Outside of them? Do Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson strike fear into your heart? They clearly don’t for Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby.
Wingstop has had its best games this season against those Spurs, thriving at being off-ball pests (and in Anunoby’s case, using his strength to make Wemby uncomfortable) and knocking down threes. Speaking of threes, no team has it more ingrained in their heads to play off of guys like Josh Hart and Mo Diawara than Mitch Johnson’s Spurs, who’ve used the strategy in consecutive games to disrupt the offense.
Wemby’s impact is also muted by Mitchell Robinson, who did not play in the NYE battle in San Antonio. In the two meetings where they’ve gone head-to-head, Wembanyama has been held to one offensive rebound, limiting the Spurs’ ability to get second chances (and this is with Mitch not playing much on Sunday).
Robinson’s defensive intensity also makes it difficult for Wemby, something that is also apparent when the Knicks face another Western Conference power: the Denver Nuggets.
Nikola Jokic is one of the league’s biggest stars, and it’s impossible to stop him from putting up numbers. While you can’t silence the Joker, you can disrupt him and make him uncomfortable. Robinson more than did that in the second half and overtime against the Nuggets in the meeting earlier this year.
Denver has never quite had an answer for the Knicks, as the ‘Bockers have won six of seven since November 2022.
We don’t know what this edition of the Knicks will look like against the West’s top dog, the OKC Thunder, but there’s no guarantee that the reigning champions make it back to the NBA Finals. They’re just 1-4 against the Spurs and have had a significantly tougher time with Jokic and the Nuggets for the last few seasons.
That’s what makes this NBA season so interesting. The Knicks would feel damn good about facing the Nuggets or Spurs in a prospective NBA Finals, as well as teams like the Sixers, Raptors, and maybe even the Cavaliers (until Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen show enough physicality, I won’t buy them) in the East. Yet, a Celtics team with a healthy Tatum and the Pistons wouldn’t be the best matchup, even if the Knicks are 2-1 and beat the Celtics last May. Even a healthy Magic team could give them trouble with how nasty their defense can get.
But the Pistons aren’t an inevitability if the Knicks make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Among contenders, they’re by far the worst 3-point shooting team and, except when they’re playing the Knicks, struggle to put the ball in the net against good teams
There’s a wide range of outcomes that the Knicks could face come playoff time. There shouldn’t be anyone surprised if the Knicks don’t make the ECF or if they seriously contend for a championship. It all depends on the right matchup, but that’s something that is mostly out of their control.