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If you’re ready to analyze performance and results, so am I. The first 10 games of Spring Training are a really bad barometer for that, and moreso an exercise in futility. So, until we can really dig into the fun stuff, I figured it would be a good time to share some thoughts on how I see the NL Central shaking out over the regular season. With Manager Oliver Marmol signed to a brand new 2-year contract extension, it would be a good time to point out that the Cardinals have won 11 more games than their expected Win-Loss total over the last 2 seasons. I expect that this trend will continue in the 2026 season. Will it be enough to keep them respectable, relevant, and interesting? We’ll see!
5th – St. Louis Cardinals
Let me be clear, I don’t think this is a 100-loss team, but they might lose 90. If they wound up 72-90, would anyone really be shocked at that outcome? Neither would I; that’s not to say this season can’t still be filled with a lot of interesting storylines and more interesting development from young players to provide a clearer picture for 2027 and beyond. If this were not to be the case, as I outlined in my article last week, several big question marks would have to be answered in the affirmative for them to really propel themselves beyond the cellar of the 2026 NL Central.
I’m intrigued by the rotation and the number of MLB-ready arms there are that can step in and throw meaningful innings for this team. I’m eager to see what type of steps forward Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Victor Scott take. I think JJ Wetherholt is going to solidify the 2nd base position and will hold it down in St. Louis for the next decade plus. I think that any of O’Brien, Romero, or Svanson can lock down games for the Cardinals at the back end of games based on matchups. There is a 90th percentile outcome where they contend for a Wild Card spot, seeing as how it’s never been easier for a team to make the postseason thanks to the expanded format.
The reduction of proven production from this roster in Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Sony Gray, Nolan Arenado, and others lowers the floor of this team to a place where Cardinals fans 30 years old and younger just simply aren’t accustomed to and that leaves open the greater possibility that the floor could fall out from under them and go sideways while not knowing how to get it back on the rails.
4th – Cincinnati Reds
Manager Terry Francona’s squad did just enough to sneak past the drowning New York Mets last season to get into the playoffs and earn the honor of preparing the Dodgers for the actual contenders in the National League. Led by one of the most exciting players in baseball, Elly De La Cruz, the Reds front office did very little in the way of adding to their team in a way that moves the needle. A full season of top prospects, Sal Stewart and Chase Burns, will likely raise their floor a bit, and the additions of Eugenio Suarez, JJ Bleday, and Dane Meyers to the offense are all that Nick Krall and Co. really accomplished. They also brought back closer Emilio Pagan and added relievers Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson to a somewhat underrated group, including Tony Santillian and Graham Ashcraft. Unclear if they will all be able to repeat the strides they made last season.
Between Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Chase Burns thats one of the better starting rotations in the NL. Health is the biggest question mark I have with that group, and I will bet against them all making it through 2026 unscathed. They have a little depth behind those 5 in Chase Petty and Rhett Lowder. Ultimately, I just think the Reds don’t have enough offensively and in the bullpen to get them to the playoffs in what I think will be a very competitive NL Central.
3rd – Milwaukee Brewers
Speaking of teams that were run over by the World Champion Dodgers, the Milwaukee Brewers land in 3rd place for me. Back-to-back NL Manager of the Year Pat Murphy leads a scrappy Brewers team that plays the game the right way and always seems to outperform expectations. Which would seemingly make this spot in the division an absurd prediction and one bound to be proven wrong.
However, the loss of Freddy Peralta is one that will not only impact their performance on the field but also the culture they had cultivated in Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff is back after accepting the QO, and rookie All-Star flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski had some up and down moments in the 2nd half of the season as MLB teams were able to adjust after seeing a little bit more of him. Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, and Brandon Sproat round out the back half of the rotation and should provide some level of consistency in the rotation.
Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe at the back end of games bring big-time gas on the mound, and the rest of the ragtag group of no-name relievers that Milwaukee always features will somehow find a way to be better than expected. If that duo can remain healthy at the back end of games, I expect Milwaukee will have one of the better bullpens statistically speaking.
An offense led by All-Star Christian Yelich, up-and-coming outfielder Jackson Chourio, Catcher William Contreras, platinum glove-winning 2nd baseman Brice Turang, and breakout primed first basemen Andrew Vaughn, Milwaukee will be a multi-faceted attack offensively capable of scoring runs and winning in a variety of ways. Even after the departures of Caleb Durbin and Issac Collins, the offense still figures to be one that will give the opposition fits all summer long.
2nd – Pittsburgh Pirates
No longer interm Manager Don Kelly leads a group that had one of the most productive and interesting offseasons in recent memory. With the additions of All-Star 2B Brandon Lowe, All-Star 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, and former All-Star DH Marcell Ozuna, OF Jhostnyxon Garcia, and OF Jake Mangum, the Pirates were able to address their biggest deficiency, and that was scoring runs. You include the possibility of Phenom top prospect Konnor Griffin in that group, and you don’t have to squint to see their offense being substantially improved.
Adding to the group of Bryan Reynolds, Oneill Cruz, and Spencer Horwitz from 2025, the Pirates will also feature a bench with defensive capabilities to help the pitching staff lock down games late between Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, and the aforementioned Jake Mangum and Jhostnyxon Garcia.
A pitching staff anchored by generational talent and reigning Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes, the rest of the league will also have to contend with Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, the return of Jared Jones, and Braxton Ashcraft. Top prospects Hunter Barco and Thomas Harrington will be waiting in the wings if and when anyone from the rotation blows a tire and needs a spell on the IL.
The bullpen will be a formidable group led by breakout reliever Dennis Santana and veteran lefty flame thrower Gregory Soto. The Pirates also acquired lefty fireballer Mason Montgomery (whom I wrote the Cardinals should have acquired at the beginning of the offseason). I think this bullpen is one of the more underrated heading into the 2026 season, and I won’t be surprised if they wind up being a big part of why they have success in 2026.
1st – Chicago Cubs
I hate it. It’s gross. I want to pour gasoline on myself and light a match. The Chicago Cubs made a very smart decision by bringing in Alex Bregman. He has the experience, the leadership, the slow heartbeat in big moments, the proven track record; he’s everything Chicago needed last postseason. Craig Counsell enters his 3rd season at the helm of the Chicago Cubs, and nationally they’re considered the near consensus favorite to win the division.
Will MLB teams continue to exploit PCA’s offensive shortcomings? Can Carson Kelly repeat his breakout season? Those will be interesting questions to follow. The Cubs are exceptional on both sides of the ball with the best up the middle defense in baseball between Swanson, Hoerner, and the aforementioned PCA. They’ve got strong corner presences in Alex Bregman, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki. They added Michael Conforto on a minor league deal this spring, and he is someone who had the largest disparity between wOBA and xwOBA last season. Moises Ballesteros is a gifted young offensive catcher who profiles more as a DH long-term, who should add to the gross amount of offensive depth they boast.
The rotation I’m a little more skeptical of. Their position group should be propped up by a really strong defense behind it. All-Star Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, newly acquired Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon, and Rookie sensation Cade Horton are a capable group who will be helped by the midseason return of Justin Steele. The rotation depth behind those 6 includes Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Jaxon Wiggins, Javier Assad, and Colin Rea.
The Bullpen includes Phil Maton coming off a stellar 2025, underrated reliever Hunter Harvey, lefty Caleb Thielbar, submarine lefty Hoby Milner, and fire baller Daniel Palencia shutting the door at the end of games. A stacked group of relievers that all offer unique looks and pitch shapes that should surely give opposing teams fits to get into any type of rhythm late in games.
The rotation is my biggest question mark, but they have so much depth behind them, and the presence of the defense should prop up most lackluster performances that that group may have. It’s hard to find any true deficiencies on paper. The Cubs should stack up against any NL contender once postseason play rolls around, and it will be miserable and envious to watch it from afar all season long.
Our focus this season will understandably be to overanalyze every Cardinals decision, but I wanted to zoom the lens out to the NL Central and how I am forecasting the 2026 season. I think the 2026 will be highly contested, and I think that it will offer more twists and turns than most fans are expecting. I’m extremely anxious to see it play out, even if that means the Cardinals wind up being fodder in a majority of the contests. Still, we’re a little over 3 weeks away from getting this started again, and I’m ready to watch it all unfold with you all for another season! Let me know what you’re thinking and what order you see the division finishing in. Might be fun to look back on at season’s end to see how close (or not) some of us were.
-thanks for reading