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If this season has taught Pep Guardiola anything, other than the fact his rivalry with Real Madrid may well exceed the lifespan of a tortoise, it is that Arsenal will probably not falter. And if they do, Manchester City certainly shouldn’t anticipate it.
The Champions League last-16 draw offered some striking match-ups; Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea, Newcastle United vs Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur. But for Guardiola, who will meet Real for a fifth consecutive season, it throws a huge spanner in the works.
Of course, the Citizens are bidding to win a seventh Premier League title in nine seasons yet this one has been the hardest, and by some margin given the circumstances.
With only 10 games remaining – nine for Arsenal – City are five points behind Mikel Arteta’s side, whose confidence and results have overwritten suggestions that they are stumbling. Take their victory over Chelsea on Sunday as an example.
What’s important to note about the Champions League ladder is that Arsenal’s path to the final is considerably easier than City’s. For example, if the Gunners beat Bayer Leverkusen in the last-16, they will play the winner of Sporting CP versus Bodo/Glimt. A semi-final would follow with either Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Newcastle or Tottenham.
Manchester City, if they end up beating Real Madrid like they did three months ago in the league phase, will have to play Atalanta or Bayern Munich, before being matched up against any of Chelsea, PSG, Liverpool or Galatasaray.
But why is this important? Manchester City host a relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest on Wednesday night at the Etihad Stadium, where a much weaker group of players on paper could help Arsenal lift the title sooner than expected.
It goes without saying that Guardiola’s side need to maintain a winning mentality and are used to the pressure of a title race. Arsenal simply aren’t acclimatised to such heat but, for what it seems, they’ve finished second far too often in previous seasons for it to happen again.
What helps is that across their last nine games, the league leaders won’t play anyone outside of the top eight aside from City at the Etihad, with Everton their highest-ranked opponent in the English top-flight at the time of writing. They face two teams in the bottom three at the start of May, yet the league could well be decided by then anyway.
They also play Newcastle, currently in 13th, and Fulham, who sit ninth at the time of writing, during that time whereas Manchester City must overcome the likes of Aston Villa, Chelsea and Brentford to try and keep up the chase with the Gunners.
Forest, who are fighting for survival at 17th in the Premier League table, have much more at stake than either City or Arsenal due to the fact that relegation can force a financial crisis and a reputation hit. And the panic could set in for Pep Guardiola’s side, who should expect a defensive and counter-attacking approach from Vitor Pereira.
The Portuguese head coach doesn’t often use a low block but rather a defensive structure that leans towards aggression and disciplined football. He emphasises structural possession – though they may not get much in the game – controlling space and lying deep in midfield.
It won’t come as a surprise to see Vitor Pereira field a defensive side that will sit further back than what is commonplace to frustrate Pep Guardiola’s side and set the panic in.
Another worry for Manchester City is that Haaland, who missed the weekend clash with Leeds United, may not feature and so Guardiola’s attack must source goals from elsewhere. There is no doubt Antoine Semenyo can emulate at least some of Haaland’s ability in front of goal, not least because of the way he played against Leeds United on Saturday, and how City performed against Newcastle in the second-leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.
Omar Marmoush too was another standout in the cup game, scoring twice inside 29 minutes, and it was particularly his free-roaming role on the day that broke Newcastle down. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see a similar line-up fielded by Guardiola, though there must be reinforcements in midfield and defence to handle the underlying threat of Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Elliot Anderson.
It goes without saying, but a team like Nottingham Forest are not the typical example of a relegation-threatened side and Pereira – their fourth manager this season – will be motivated to turn things around domestically after Europa League success against Fenerbahce.
There is an undeniable risk to Wednesday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium and it could so turn out to be an easy game for Guardiola and co. This, however, isn’t the assumption to go off because any sign of slack in the dressing room will be music to the ears of supporters in north London.
If a slip-up does occur, which is highly unlikely, the Real Madrid game in exactly a week’s time could end up becoming a season-saver rather than a season-extender.
Pep Guardiola will certainly want the bragging rights over Real Madrid and, obviously, the chance to win a second Champions League title with Manchester City in what could be his final season at the club, though the priority must be Nottingham Forest, who are much better than what league standings indicate.